Water Umbra GuardianTier 2
at 20251018 貓腳印-桃園店 DTR 店冠賽
decks
3
(6.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
7-8-0
overall winrate
46.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.7%
avg ELO -3.4 per match
expected value
47.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1282
· median 1293
· range 1259–1296
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1025
Q1 1198
Q3 1394
1591
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suited | 8.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.8% | -7.9 |
| Wind Allies | 8.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.2% | -4.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.7% | -17.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.7% | +11.2 |
| Water Astra Diana | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.6% | -3.8 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.6% | +12.1 |
